Sales volumes likely to be lower in 2023 as affordability becomes more challenging

With rising interest rates and more challenging affordability (especially for first-time buyers), sales volumes will likely slow in 2023.
Uncertainty has an impact on housing market activity; with a new Prime Minister and Chancellor there is hope that this extra layer of uncertainty clears.
Current sales volumes are just over 1.2 million a year; a 12% fall would take them to the average level post the Global Financial Crisis.
More significant falls are possible depending on where interest rates end up but there are some counter-indications in today’s market.
Recent behavioural changes from Covid are still driving demand as movers look for more outside space and space to work from home.
Family circumstances mean there is always a core level of sales activity, plus 56% of owner-occupiers have no mortgage and won’t be affected by interest rate rises. Source Dataloft, HMRC